Milidonis, Andreas.
North American Actuarial Journal 20 (3), 252-275.
Publication year: 2016
  • We compare the timeliness of the Merton Default Risk Model and the Regime-switching Default Risk model.
  • A Credit Warning Signal (CWS) is proposed based on the two models.
  • Using data from the US (2004-2010) the CWS is compared to CDS spreads.
  • CWS is shown to have a lead effect over CDS spreads.